The loss of Michael Ballack, the man who guided a German side that looked short on obvious quality through two hugely successful World Cups, needs no further explanation. In its own way it is a big a blow as Essien's absence from the Ghana squad. Their manager, Joachim Low, seems determined to squeeze one more World Cup from Miroslav Klose, despite the fact that he has been eclipsed at Bayern Munich by Ivica Olic. And yet, the Germans have prepared with a series of straightforward victories over Hungary and Bosnia and are starting to exude confidence.

There are 36 years separating Germany's last meeting with Australia that turned into a straightfoward 3-0 win in Hamburg from this game in Durban. This, however, is a radically different Australian side that qualified for South Africa in some style and, unlike Germany, they have their key midfielder, Tim Cahill, fit. Nevertheless, they have endured a mixed series of warm-up games since arriving in South Africa, losing 3-1 to the United States after a 1-0 win over Denmark. And everything in their training camp has been overshadowed by the news that the son of their reserve keeper, Brad Jones, has been diagnosed with leukaemia.

 Germany, unlike England, usually start World Cups well. Since 1986, when they drew 1-1 with Uruguay ' a result that hardly impeded their progress to the final - Germany have won every one of their opening games, usually at a canter. The Australia captain, Lucas Neill, remarked that a draw was the limit of their ambitions in Durban, while a win 'would shock the world'. The world is unlikely to be shocked. Verdict: Germany to win.