Joachim Low’s second tournament as manager of Germany has panned out much like his first. In Euro 2008, the Germans, who ended up in the final, won their first and third group games but lost their second to a nation that once made up Yugoslavia. Then it was Croatia, now it was Serbia. Miroslav Klose, one of those rare players who comes to life in a World Cup, will return from suspension to lead a German attack that performed well against some fairly determined defending from Ghana at Soccer City. However, an injury to Bastian Schweinsteiger took some of the gloss from the victory. This is a young German side, with an average age of 25, and as Lukas Podolski proved when failing to score from the spot against Serbia, they even miss penalties. Nevertheless, as Jurgen Klinsmann, the man who transformed the image of German football four years ago, pointed out their youth meant they approached the must-win game against Serbia in which their defence was superbly marshalled by Philip Lahm without fear and some of this side, including goalkeeper, Manuel Neuer, played in the Under-21 Championship that saw England routed 4-0. This match will be much closer.

The weight of history has never been so heavy as it is whenever England play Germany. Aside from the triumph of 1966, their two other victories over the old enemy have been bittersweet experiences. A year after their 5-1 victory in Munich, perhaps their finest performance since Alf Ramsey’s triumph at Wembley, Germany were contesting the 2002 World Cup final and England had gone home. The 1-0 win in Euro 2000, courtesty of Alan Shearer’s header, came in a tournament that saw both sides eliminated at the group stage. England have not played well and it is a measure of their stuttering performances in South Africa that a 1-0 win over Slovenia, a team Fabio Capello’s men would normally have thought of beating routinely, was acclaimed as a triumph. Still, they looked better with Jermain Defoe’s pace and John Terry, who had been expected to be dropped following his criticism of the England manager, greeted his reprieve with a fine defensive performance.

This is too close to call. Germany have played better football; England, on paper at least have better players. Both are fallible and the winners might be the team that plays the occasion better – which would seem to favour the Germans who are less inhibited by history. Nevertheless, however poorly they have played in World Cups and 2010 has been every bit as bad as 2006 for the Three Lions, England invariably deliver one outstanding perfromance in a tournament – against Argentina in 1998 and 2002 or Portugal four years ago. Very often they are wonderful displays in defeat but this might be different. Verdict: England to win.