Italy have not begun as badly as either France or England but they have been enduring agonies over the state of Gianluigi Buffon's back which will almost certainly prevent the Juventus keeper from starting. His deputy, Federico Marchetti, is perfectly capable, although Giorgio Chiellini has warned him to expect something of an aerial bombardment should New Zealand cross the halfway line in numbers. Italy require a big, substantial victory in order to calm everyone down and even without Buffon and with Andrea Pirlo unlikely to be fit until the final group game, this seems a perfect opportunity. 

 When the All Whites' centre-forward, Ricky Fallon, remarked that victory over Italy would “change the face of the nation” he may not have been talking just about New Zealand – it would lead to a collective breakdown in Rome. New Zealand can relax, their point in Rustenburg has already made this campaign a success and 12 months ago, they proved they can breach the Italian defence in a 4-3 friendly defeat before the Confederations Cup. To do it once more would be a triumph. 

In 1966, Italy lost to North Korea and were greeted with volleys of rotten fruit when they landed back in Rome. Should they fail to beat New Zealand, that reception will seem very tame. Logically, a game between the world champions and the qualifiers from Oceania should be an absolute no contest. Were it anything other than a comfortable victory for Marcello Lippi's men, expect a meltdown. Verdict: Italy to win.