This was supposed to have been Italy v Cameroon but this has been nothing if not an unpredictable World Cup. Paraguay should be confident of reaching the quarter-finals for the first time in their history but they enter the Loftus Versfeld on something of a downward spiral, with each of their performances slightly worse than their last. Their manager, Gerardo Martino was especially critical of the goalless draw with New Zealand, which he called their worst attacking display under his leadership. Nevertheless, he his likely to deploy three forwards, Roque Santa Cruz, Nelson Valdez and Lucas Barrios against a Japanese back four that, marshalled by Marcus Tulio Tanaka, that have conceded just once from open play in the tournament. So, too, have Paraguay and although their holding midfielder, Victor Caceres, is suspended, centre-half Antolin Alcaraz is likely to return.

Nobody is laughing at Takeshi Okada now. The Japan manager provoked widespread ridicule when he predicted that his players would reach the semi-finals – a target that many supporters revised radically downwards after a warm-up programme that saw them beaten repeatedly. Nevertheless, by aiming high Tanaka has ensured he has not repeated the mistakes of his predecessor, Philippe Troussier, who told his players that once they had qualified from the group stages, they had achieved all their goals of the campaign. Japan were beaten by Turkey in the round of 16 and watched their co-hosts, South Korea, march all the way to the semi-finals. Many in Tanaka’s squad admitted they were fortunate that their first game was against Cameroon who were more of a shambles than many realised. A change of tactics, giving Keisuke Honda more of an attacking role in front of Yasuhito Endo and Kakoto Hasebe and two sublime free-kicks were enough to do for Denmark.

Japan do not usually do well against South American teams, having lost to Argentina in 1998 and Brazil in 2006 but Paraguay are not in that class. The fact that Tulio Tanaka should be fit enough to play will give Japan a boost and their big central defender expects a niggly, physical game from the Paraguayans. “They will be trying everything to rile us,” he said. “And we will try to have to vary our free-kicks to surprise them.” Since these two sides have conceded three goals between them which points to a tight affair but momentum is slightly with Japan. Verdict: Japan to win.