Uruguay have never shown more grit than they have in this World Cup. They were the last team to qualify for South Africa and, after a quarter-finals that saw three of the four South American teams fall, they are the last men left standing. This is their first semi-final since 1970 and the requirement is slightly easier now than they were then – in Mexico they had to stop the finest Brazil side ever assembled. Now they have to face a Dutch squad that will have the fervent backing not just of the Cape – where 20,000 of their fans have gathered – but of all of Africa. The way Uruguay eliminated Ghana in the quarter-finals has turned the continent against them and here they will be deprived not just of Luis Suarez, whose hand-ball cost Ghana certain victory in Johannesburg, but of full-back, Jorge Fucile, who is also suspended. In addition, manager Oscar Tabarez is likely to have to make do without his captain, Diego Lugano, and defender, Diego Gogin though injury. He could simply replace Suarez with Sebastian Abreu, whose cheeky penalty won the shoot-out with Ghana. More probably, Tabarez could pack the midfield and hope to snatch something on the break.

Having beaten Brazil, there is surely no way the Dutch are going to mess it up now? This is Holland, after all, a team famous for snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. However, the odds are overwhelmingly in their favour. Cape Town will be a sea of orange for their first semi-final since 1998. Robin van Persie and Joris Mathijsen have both been declared fit and it is 24 matches since Holland last lost an international. Nevertheless, manager, Bert van Marwijk, may decide that he could do without the Arsenal striker who has started all five of Holland’s matches in South Africa but who has had to be substituted in each one. Rafael van der Vaart might be a less awkward fit in the Dutch forward line. Van Marwijk will also have to replace the suspended Nigel de Jong, probably with Stijn Schaars and he expects a battle. He is likely to get one.

Given that Holland are even worse at penalty shoot-outs than England, Uruguay’s best hope is probably to hold out for a draw and win through on spot-kicks. However, the odds are overwhelmingly against them. De Jong apart, the Dutch will be at full strength, in front of what will seem like a home crowd and facing a team without its principal striker and probably without its captain. Uruguay’s only option appears to be to battle for every centimetre. “Uruguay’s history demands that we are world champions,” said their captain, Diego Lugano. “We are prepared for an almighty battle and, God willing, another step towards our great dream.” It is, however, a vision likely to die at Green Point, the stadium where their World Cup began. Verdict: Holland to win.