Live Betting Explained: How In-Play Odds Work and When to Bet During Matches - Our Method

Stop Treating It As Fast Money: What Live Betting Really Means

Betting live on football is placing wagers after a match has started. You simply have two options. You can place a bet before a match starts (prematch), or you can wait for the game to kick off and place your bets in play (live betting in football).

In Play Defined

In-play betting is the same as live betting, which means to bet on a football match or event after it has started. It is just another way to describe the same thing. 

Pre-Match Versus Live

If you place a pre-match bet, you are basing your selection on the outcome of previous events. For example, your bet selection might be based on recent results or where a team sits in a table. The other key difference is that pre-match odds are static, allowing you more time to weigh up your decision.

Live betting odds continually change; they are dynamic and fast-moving. The changing odds are based on how a match is playing out, meaning you can take advantage of live pictures or real-time data, and place better-informed wagers on the direction you feel the match is going in. 

This requires quick decision-making, which can occasionally lead to mistakes. Emotion can often influence your decision-making. 

Why has live betting grown so quickly

It’s difficult to pinpoint the exact reason, but factors that may be behind the increased popularity in live betting are: 

• More live streaming of matches from across the world

• Better in-play data feeds and live stats on betting sites

• Popular initiatives from the bookies, like boosted odds and bet builders

• The ease with which bets can be placed using mobile betting apps

• Flash odds on social media during play

The Clock Changes Everything: How Live Odds Actually Move

No one wants any silly and avoidable losses when they wager on football, so make sure you know why odds change and what events have the biggest impact on price shifts in-play:

Real Time Repricing

Odds will gradually alter over time unless something happens to dramatically change the outcome of a match. 

For example, if Team A is 2.00 to win at kick-off, its odds will gradually lengthen until there is a goal that affects the outcome. 

If Team A scores, their odds will shorten, with Team B’s lengthening. If neither team scores, both their odds will lengthen, with the odds on the draw shortening.

Other factors that can gradually cause odds to change are in-play xG (expected goals), cards, percentage of possession, and corners. Although nothing will impact the odds as heavily as a goal does.

Why odds pause after goals and red cards

A goal or a red card can significantly alter odds. A pause in betting after either gives the bookmaker time to adjust its odds. It effectively buys them thinking time. It also gives a brief period to confirm the goal doesn't get chalked off by the dreaded VAR. 

Pauses in betting will also occur when a penalty is awarded and often when a VAR review of any sort is taking place. 

What triggers live odds changes

Goals and cards dramatically change odds, but in-play statistics can also trigger changes. 

To illustrate, live statistics may show a team is dominating possession, having more corners and has a higher xG. This may cause a slight shift in odds.

This obviously doesn’t guarantee a goal, but it increases the likelihood that the team in the ascendancy will score. The trick is to spot the trend and get in before the goal is scored and grab yourself the better value. 

Slightly more risky, yes, but the rewards will be greater. 

Also be aware that odds will dramatically shift as a match approaches the end. If two teams are drawing at roughly the 70-75 minutes mark, the odds on the draw will begin to decrease at a far faster rate. Unless that is, someone finds that game-changing late goal.

Market Depth Matters: Live Betting Options In Football

The number of markets available to bet on decreases once a match turns into in-play. But there are still plenty of good value markets available. Some of the most popular are:

Live match result and double chance bets

As well as betting on the winner of the match, you can also wager on the double chance market. Double chance is covering two match outcomes; Team A/Draw, Team B/Draw or Team A/Team B. 

In general, it is a more cautious bet. But it is great when an underdog takes the lead against a firm favourite. All of a sudden betting on the fancied team to either win or draw becomes a far better value bet.

Live over under and goal line bets

Goal lines are great in-play wagers on matches where you aren’t sure who will win, but can see goals. 

If a match is still 0-0 after 30 minutes, but it has that look of 2-1 to either team about it, backing over 2.5 goals is far better value, as the odds will be much better than they were pre kick-off. 

The downside is that an early goal makes backing over 2.5 goals unrealistic, as the odds will be too short.  

Live both teams to score markets

As with goal lines, betting on both teams to score (also known as BTTS) can be more profitable when done in-play. 

We’ve seen many matches over the years that are 0-0 at half-time, but 1-1 at full-time. Placing this bet in-play can be very profitable when you get it right. 

On a note of caution, be aware of matches that look open but have one team likely to shut up shop if they go a goal ahead. Anyone who remembers Jose Mourinho’s Chelsea will fully understand that. 

Momentum Distorts Price: How Market Movement Creates Illusion

Markets shift heavily on goals or red cards, but they also move without major incidents as matches evolve:

How momentum impacts live odds

If a team is clearly on top and exerting pressure, their odds will begin to shorten, even without a goal. But don’t judge momentum purely by possession or even shots on goal. 

Players can shoot from 30 yards out because they can’t break a team down and get near their goal. This will still register as a shot in the stats. 

But it highlights why it’s best to check xG stats or shots inside the box, rather than just possession or shots on goal.

Reading odds drops and spikes

Following matches live is the best way to learn what causes drops and spikes in odds. 

For instance, the odds on over 2.5 goals may temporarily shorten if a team is exerting a lot of pressure through a succession of corners, or their winger is having a lot of success taking on a full back.  

If a lot of punters pile into that market, it will cause a drop in odds as the bookmaker reacts to a possible hefty payout. 

When live odds offer better value than pre-match

Betting on the number of cards to be issued in a match is one great example of a market with better live odds than pre-match. 

Referees tend to try to hold off on awarding cards early in games. Especially in big TV matches, where they don’t want to spoil the match by making it 10v11, or have a lazy pundit accusing the ref of making it all about themselves.

However, once the ref issues one card, the floodgates can often open. Especially later in a match with a bit of an edge to it. Look for derbies that can explode into life late on as well.

 Timing Beats Speed: When To Enter Live Markets

If we could time live bets correctly, we’d all be millionaires. Sadly, there is no way of doing this. But there are trends you can follow to increase your chances of winning:

Early match live betting opportunities

The early minutes of a match can see markets move slowly. Things can be cagey, and the odds often reflect their pre-match prices until the match settles into a pattern. 

If you can spot something quicker than the bookies, there is a great chance to cash in before the statistics start to take effect and cause the bookies to react.

Mid-game live betting strategies

A game has usually settled into a pattern after 20-30 minutes. Odds will now also settle as they reflect the game flow, before starting to move quicker again at around the 70-minute mark as the match approaches its end. 

This allows you to take a position on the match for a period of time. For example, if a match is 0-0 after 25 minutes, you can bet over 2.5 goals at way over even money, knowing that if two goals are scored before the 70-minute mark, you can still cash out for a profit. 

Late goals and high-risk live betting

Late markets are volatile and high-risk. If a match is 0-0, you can bet on over 1.5 goals. If you get a goal before 85 minutes, you can then immediately cash out for a profit.

You will probably lose more than you win, but the wins will be profitable. Also, avoid bookies that close betting late in a match. 

Stats Cut Through Hype: Reading Game Flow Properly

Don’t get fooled into betting on a team based on its reputation or history. Instead, learn how to read and understand data and use it to your advantage:

Using possession, shots, and pressure

As already touched on, don’t take possession and shots on goal data as a given for dominance. Look at the quality of the chances, ie, touches in the box and xG.

Why live stats matter more than team names

Also, be aware of betting on reputation, rather than what is happening on the pitch. 

Germany’s famous 7-1 win over Brazil in the 2014 World Cup semi-final is a great example. The Germans weren’t influenced by the famous yellow shirts, they focused on the inferior players wearing them. 

Spotting false momentum in matches

False momentum can occur when a counter-attacking team sits back and concedes possession. 

The statistics can lead bettors to believe the team with the possession is on top, when really, they are falling for the opposition’s game plan.

Markets can occasionally misread matches. Bookies aren’t perfect either. Do your homework, and you can exploit these opportunities. 

Pressure Scenarios Expose Weak Judgement: High Stakes Live Moments

Learning how markets react to events in matches comes with experience. Here are some helpful examples:

Example: betting after an early goal

A 1/2 favourite goes 1-0 down after 10 minutes. As a result, their odds go out to 6/4.

After 20 minutes, the statistics show that the favourite is way on top. You can then back the favourite at far better odds. 

If the favourite is struggling, then reevaluate at half-time. Backing the favourite in the double chance might now be the better option.

Example: betting a tight match late on

A match is 0-0 after 70 minutes, with the odds of over 0.5 goals at 1.90. You can see a team is creating a lot of good quality chances as they have a high in-play xG. This makes a bet on over 0.5 far better value than if the xG is low.

How one moment changes live odds

Red cards will see odds change. However, they can also encourage the team down to ten men to shut up shop, decreasing the chances of goals at both ends. 

Despite this, the odds of goals being scored may increase due to one team having a clear advantage. 

Live betting vs cash out decisions

This is one we all agonise over. Do we let a bet run and risk losing, or do we cash out and take some profit?

When live betting replaces cash out

Bookmakers' overround can sometimes make cashing out not as profitable as it should be. It’s always worth checking the odds on the opposite side of the bet first to see if it gives you a better return. 

For example, you’ve backed over 2.5 goals and the score is 1-1, and you want to cash out. Instead of cashing out, consider backing under 2.5 goals to hedge your bet.

Even check the odds on the match finishing 1-1 in the correct score market. It might prove more profitable to back that than cash out.

Combining live bets with open positions

You might have backed Team A to beat Team B pre-match. Team A is winning 1-0 with 20 minutes to go, but you can see them conceding a goal. 

At this point, you can hedge your bets by covering any losses with small bets on the draw, and also a small wager on Team B to win. 

Avoiding emotional decisions mid-match

Emotional decision-making can be costly. Take the emotion out of betting and place your wagers based on statistics, not because you support the team.

Emotion Destroys Discipline: Why Live Betting Goes Wrong

Making money from betting is hard enough. Don’t make it any more difficult by making silly mistakes.

Chasing losses with fast bets

It’s easy to place a late bet in a match to cover one that is already losing. Stop and think first; fast bets can be emotional and reckless. 

Betting without watching the match

If you’re betting on a match you are not watching, make sure you have the best live statistics and data available to you to help compensate.

Overreacting to short-term events

Just because a team that is being heavily dominated manages a couple of quick corners doesn’t mean they suddenly have all the momentum. It could just be a brief respite. 

Play the longer game and wait for a theme to develop.

Selectivity Protects Capital: Long-Term Live Betting Approach

Betting sounds simple. We only have to pick one team to beat another, and who can’t do that. Unfortunately, it isn’t that easy. You need a strategy that makes sense and works in the long term.

Why do fewer live bets often perform better

If you place five bets a week at even money, only three have to win for you to be in profit. Choose your bets wisely. Also, having too many open positions at once can scramble thinking. Especially in fast-moving live betting markets.

Choosing safer live markets

Safer live markets are always worth considering. Take the double chance market. This can be ideal for cautious bettors, especially in matches where the favourite goes behind early on.

Managing bankroll during live betting

Managing your bankroll is probably the single most important practice you can master. Get it wrong, and you’ll quickly go bust.

Set pre-bet limits. It could be two percent of your betting bank. Do not increase stakes in-play to try and claw back losing bets.

Who live betting is best suited for

Live betting isn’t for the inexperienced or risk-averse. Think long and hard before you decide whether it is for you or not. 

Alternatively, start with extremely low stakes while you learn on the job. Afterall, experience comes over time.

Experienced bettors reading match flow

Experienced bettors who know how to read the flow of a match and compare it to the live odds stand a better chance of profiting in the long term. 

As mentioned above, if you want to learn, do so using small stakes or paper trading.

Fans watching matches in real time

If you’re watching a game, you know how it’s going, and you can spot trends with your own eyes. Don’t be shy about backing your own judgement and exploiting misaligned prices from the bookies.

Why live betting is hard for beginners

When you bet prematch you can do research and check again before taking the plunge. This makes it perfect for beginners.

Sometimes in live betting, the moment to dive in can quickly pass, and if you hesitate, you miss it. Beginners often miss this moment. They are also vulnerable to making the wrong call under pressure as dynamic markets quickly change in front of their eyes.

Live betting and responsible decision-making

Keeping a calm head under pressure isn’t easy. This makes responsible decision-making more difficult, and it might not be right for everyone. 

Why live betting feels more intense

Markets move fast, and this increases the chances of reckless decision-making as you fear you’re going to miss your chance. If it feels too intense, it’s best to take a step back and reassess. 

Setting limits before matches start

Under pressure, you may make mistakes, so have a clear total you are prepared to wager in your head before you begin. Once you hit that limit, walk away. Always have an exit strategy or a cashout loss limit. 

Knowing when not to bet live

This might sound contradictory, but sometimes the best live bets are the ones you don’t place. Just because a match is taking place doesn’t mean you automatically have to bet on it. Work out when to not bet live.

Live football guides and in-play betting tips from LiveGoals

Our live football guides show you how to make the most of in-play markets with expert tips and advice on when to get involved and what matchups to seek out for value. 

Brought to you by experienced football bettors at LiveGoals, we also show you what influences in-play market price shifts, how to use xG to your advantage, and how statistics really are key to successful live betting.

Live betting rewards discipline and timing, not reflex reactions. 

Live betting isn’t for the inexperienced or risk-averse bettors. It can be emotive, and with fast-moving markets, it can get stressful and lead to costly mistakes.

For the experienced bettors who know how to read a game and make informed decisions, live betting offers unlimited opportunities to take the bookies on at their own game. 

Armed with a sensible staking plan, long-term strategy, and the discipline to know when to bet or when to take a step back, live betting is a great way to wager on football.