Moneyline Betting Avoid Blind Favorite Traps In Football

💵 What is Moneyline (1X2) betting?

The premise is simple. Pick the likeliest of three outcomes:

• The favourite wins

• The underdog wins

• A draw

Stop Calling It Simple: What Moneyline Betting Really Means

Before we go any further, it is worth pausing to nail down a definition of the most popular form of football bet.

Straight Win Concept

A moneyline bet is a bet on the outcome of a game. A bettor has three options: a win for Team A, a win for Team B or a draw. The bet is successful if their prediction is correct. If not, the bet loses and your stake is not returned. 

Why Simplicity Sells

Moneyline betting is the most popular type of betting primarily because it is simple to understand. There are other reasons, though. Moneyline is available both pre-match and in-game, and it is a suitable choice even if you do not know the two teams in depth.

No Spread No Cushion

A moneyline bet is a straightforward prediction about which team will win a match (or whether it will be drawn). There are no additional variables to consider, unlike markets such as the handicap. And unlike over/under totals, it is a wager on the outcome of the game.

Where to play on Moneyline (1X2)

Most betting operators offer moneyline betting thanks to its simplicity and popularity. Nice perks to look out for include unique promotions, competitive odds and smooth withdrawals. Here’s a few of the top bookmakers offering moneyline betting in the UK:

Moneyline (1X2) on bet365

You can find moneyline betting options at bet365 on sports where there are two competitors facing off against each other, such as football, boxing, rugby and tennis.

bet365 is best known for pioneering the ‘2 Goals Ahead Early Payout Offer’, which sees your bet settled early if your chosen team goes in front by two goals or more. Available on over 80 football leagues, this offer is an attractive option for bettors who like to dabble with match result betting.

On top of this, bet365 offers enhanced odds on big name competitions such as the Champions League, Europa League and the English Premier League. These enhanced prices are only available on 3-way moneyline bets, and bets placed on these enhanced odds won’t qualify for things like the ‘2 Goals Ahead Early Payout Offer’ or ‘Soccer Parlay Boost’. It’s definitely worth bearing this in mind if you’re placing moneyline bets at bet365.

If you’re based in the UK, you’ll generally find that bet365 defaults to displaying fractional odds, but you can change how you view them in your account settings. The ability to view fractional, decimal, American or American fractional makes bet365 a great choice for bettors who have crossed borders and are yet to learn a new system.

>Go to bet365

Moneyline (1X2) on Betfred

Betfred offers moneyline betting across a broad selection of sports. An established name in the UK, the bookmaker is known for their extensive and varied promotions, with their ‘Double Delight’ and ‘Hat-trick Heaven’ offers on selected football matches proving to be fan favourites amongst British punters. To get involved, you simply have to place a bet pre-match on a player to score first in an eligible game. If they go on to score a second or third time you’ll be paid out at double or triple the odds.

>Go to Betfred

Moneyline (1X2) on Unibet

A part of Kindred Group, Unibet is a Scandinavian bookmaker that has quickly gained traction in the UK. It offers moneyline betting on popular and more niche sports, such as bandy, hurling and Gaelic football. Unibet has won awards for both their commitment to social responsibility and the quality of their product, making it an all-round great choice for anyone placing moneyline bets in the UK.

The Unibet rewards centre is stocked with various ways to enhance your bet, including ‘Combo Boosts’, ‘Profit Boosts’ and ‘Reboosts’. You can also place ‘Insurance Bets’, which returns your stake as a free bet if your bet loses by a certain number of legs. 

The Price Drives Everything: How Moneyline Odds Work

How do bookmakers set prices for the moneyline and what do those numbers actually mean? Let’s get into it.

Favorites And Underdogs

As we have already established, the moneyline always has three options: home win, draw or away win. The favourites are available at shorter odds, such as 4/6 (fractional), 1.67 (decimal) or -150 (American). The underdogs are listed at a longer price, such as 2/1 (fractional), 3.0 (decimal) or +200 (American).

What Positive and Negative Odds Mean 

The terms positive and negative are usually employed when talking about American odds. A negative price, such as -150 in the example above, is for the favourites. Positive odds, such as +200, are for the underdogs.

How Payouts Are Calculated on Moneyline Bets

The size of the payout depends on your stake and the bookmaker’s odds. If you place £10 on a team priced at -150, you will earn a profit of £6.67 if they win. If you put £10 on a side at 3/1, you will earn a profit of £30. In both cases you also get your stake back.

Football Changes The Equation: How Moneyline Works In Soccer

There is more to moneyline betting than backing the home or away team to win the match. Here are some additional aspects to consider. 

Two-Way vs Three-Way Moneyline Bets 

The most common form of moneyline bet is three-way: home win, away win or draw. However, you can also bet on a two-way moneyline, which is sometimes presented as the ‘draw no bet’ market. 

How Draws Affect Football Moneylines 

Most moneyline bets go on either the home or away team. Betting the draw is not as popular, which means it often represents good value. Removing the draw as an option in the draw no bet market shortens the odds for both teams.

Moneyline Betting vs 1X2 Explained

You will sometimes see the three-way moneyline represented as 1X2, referring to the home team, the draw and the away team respectively. In the USA, this market tends to be promoted as the moneyline. In the UK and Europe, 1X2 is more common.

Spreads And Handicaps Compete: Where Moneyline Fits

Betting the moneyline is just one option for punters. Sometimes it is the best choice, but on other occasions different markets are more attractive. 

Moneyline vs Point Spread Betting 

When you bet the moneyline, you choose which team will win the match or whether it will be a draw. Point spread betting, which is an American term, involves predicting the margin of victory. For instance, Team A -1.5 means Team A must win by two clear goals for the bet to be successful.

Moneyline vs Handicap Betting 

Handicap betting is the European equivalent of point spread betting - the principle is exactly the same. From the perspective of a sports bettor, it is a way to increase value in games where there is an obvious favourite and a clear underdog. 

When Moneyline Is the Safer Option

Moneyline is safer in most cases. You do not have to predict the margin of victory, but simply pick which team will win. However, the odds on the moneyline can be unattractive when one side is massively fancied to triumph - for example, when the league leaders are facing the bottom team in the division. It is a classic risk versus reward trade-off.

Value Beats Comfort: When Moneyline Makes Sense

In what scenarios should you take advantage of the moneyline? Here is the key information you need to know. 

Backing Strong Favourites Safely 

Moneyline betting is a safe way to back the strong favourites to win a match. Sometimes you can get bogged down in the dozens of betting markets available these days. There are times when it makes sense to secure an easy win by tipping the stronger side in the moneyline.

Finding Value on Underdogs 

On other occasions, the moneyline provides an opportunity to win on the underdogs. Perhaps you believe a team has been overpriced by the bookies. Backing them on the moneyline often provides excellent value.

Using Moneyline Bets in Low-Scoring Sports

Moneyline betting in a low-scoring sport like football is a more attractive option than in higher-scoring games. Handicap or point spread betting is riskier in football due to the relatively low number of goals. The moneyline is often the best pick.

Real World Scenarios Matter: How Moneyline Plays Out

In this section we take a closer look at the three choices you have when betting the moneyline.

Example of a Favourite Moneyline Bet 

Let’s imagine a cup tie between a top-flight team and opponents from the third division. The stronger side would naturally be the favourites here, perhaps at odds of 1/3 (fractional), 1.33 (decimal) or -333.3 (American). A £10 wager would earn you a profit of £3.33 if the favourites win. 

Example of an Underdog Moneyline Bet 

The underdog is simply the team considered less likely to win. It could be a struggling relegation contender travelling to the home of the champions. At odds of 9/4 (fractional), 3.25 (decimal) or +225 (American), a £10 stake would produce a profit of £22.50.

What Happens if the Match Ends in a Draw

While it is more common to back a win for either team, you should also consider the possibility of a draw. If the score is level at the final whistle, a wager on the draw pays out. Any bet backing Team A or Team B to win would be unsuccessful. 

Accumulators Magnify Risk: Why Moneylines Build Parlays

Moneyline bets can be singles, but you can also include them in an accumulator. Let’s explain how that works.

Why Moneylines Are Popular in Parlays 

An accumulator (also known as a parlay) combines multiple selections into one wager, with all legs needing to win for a payout. The moneyline is popular when making acca picks because it is simple to understand and easy to combine across multiple games.

Risk of Heavy Favourites in Accas 

It is tempting to include several strong favourites in your moneyline acca, but think twice before doing so. For starters, it would only take a single slip-up to ruin your entire bet. Moreover, backing only heavy favourites means the potential profit is low. It is a lot of risk for little reward.

Balancing Odds and Probability

As ever, the task for a sports bettor creating a moneyline accumulator is to strike the right balance between odds and probability. Take too many risks and you are likely to fail. Take too few risks and you will not get much back even if all your predictions are correct.

Context Creates Edge: Factors Before Placing A Moneyline

Do not just bet the moneyline without taking time to consider the following issues.

Team Form and Match Context 

One factor that should be at the forefront of your mind before placing a moneyline bet is the form the two teams are in. Just because one side is traditionally stronger, it does not mean they will beat a historically smaller team on a winning run. Consider the match context too - perhaps it is more important for one team than the other.

Home Advantage and Travel Fatigue 

The reasons for home advantage are often debated, but its existence is not in doubt. The data going back years shows that home teams win more matches than away teams. Take this into account before making your moneyline choice.

Injuries, Lineups, and Motivation

If a team is missing their three best players due to injury, their chances of victory are reduced. Perhaps the best time to place your moneyline bet is an hour or so before kick-off, once the lineups have been published. Do not neglect the two teams’ motivation levels either.

Public Bias Inflates Prices: Where Moneyline Misleads

Every sports bettor should have a strategy before parting with their money. Here are three tips to get you started.

Why Chasing Short Odds Can Be Risky 

Short moneyline odds feel safe. You know exactly what you are betting on and by tipping the favourites to win, there is a high chance of success. Be careful, though. When the odds are short, you need a large stake to generate decent profits. This is when the risk comes in.

Spotting Inflated Favourites 

Sports bettors should always be on the lookout for odds that do not reflect the true probability. Sometimes the odds on the favourites are inflated, meaning the price is longer than it should be. This is a good opportunity for you to back that team on the moneyline.

When Underdogs Offer Better Value

There are times when underdogs offer better value. By definition, the bookie considers the underdog less likely to win than the favourite. But sometimes the so-called weaker side is overpriced - and that is your chance to strike.

Live Markets Move Fast: Moneyline In Play Dynamics

As well as placing a wager pre-game, there are also ample opportunities to bet the moneyline in-play.

How Moneyline Odds Change In-Play 

Just like all other markets, moneyline odds change when the action is under way. For example, the odds on the favourites will lengthen if they go 1-0 down. Other price-shifting events include red cards, injuries and even momentum shifts. 

Reacting to Goals, Cards, and Momentum

If you can anticipate goals and cards before they happen, you will be in a good position. Whether you are watching the match live or following it via live goals platforms, try to get a sense of where the momentum lies at any given moment. If you are reacting to events after they have happened, make sure you are acting rationally, not emotionally.

When Live Moneyline Bets Make Sense

Live moneyline betting makes sense in a few different scenarios. One is when the favourites concede early but you still expect them to win. Betting in-play gives you better odds. Live moneyline betting is also useful when a momentum shift has not yet been reflected in the scoreline.

Common Moneyline Betting Mistakes 

If you can steer clear of these three common moneyline betting errors, you will automatically increase your chance of success.

Assuming Favourites Always Win 

The favourites are the favourites for a reason, but in a low-scoring sport like football it is not unusual for the underdogs to triumph. Do not assume the favourites will always win. Check form, team news and other relevant factors first.

Ignoring Draw Probability in Football 

The draw is often overlooked by inexperienced sports bettors, but it should not be. Just under a quarter of matches are drawn, so it is not exactly a rare occurrence. Because most people prefer to tip a win for either team, the draw can provide great value. 

Overusing Moneylines in Accumulators

Moneyline bets are not your only option for accumulators. Remember, it only takes one leg to fail for your whole acca to be ruined. Consider other markets when the moneyline does not make sense. 

Who Moneyline Betting Is Best For 

The moneyline is not for everyone, but the following individuals would be well suited to this type of bet. 

Beginners Looking for Simplicity 

If you are new to sports betting, the moneyline markets are a great place to understand. Unlike markets such as the handicap or various complex team or player props, it is immediately obvious what you are staking your cash on when you choose the moneyline.

Experienced Bettors Managing Risk 

The moneyline is not just for beginners, though. Experienced bettors often use this market to manage risk. The moneyline reduces the number of variables down to one, making it a relatively low-risk pick. You also typically need to do less research to make a prediction on the moneyline compared to, say, the total number of corners. 

Sports Where Moneyline Is Most Effective

Football is one of the best sports for moneyline betting because it is relatively low-scoring. The realistic possibility of a draw also improves the odds for both the favourites and the underdogs. The moneyline is also popular in sports like baseball, ice hockey and tennis.

Moneyline betting looks simple on the surface, but price discipline determines whether it pays. 

Of all the many football markets offered by bookmakers today, the moneyline is by far the most straightforward to understand. But just because moneyline betting is easy to get your head around, that does not mean success is guaranteed.

Having said that, if you do your research beforehand and follow the guidance provided in this article, you can be a profitable moneyline bettor. 

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