1. Home
  2. Betting
  3. World Cup Referees: The Officials Most Likely to Reach for the Cards

World Cup Referees: The Officials Most Likely to Reach for the Cards

We now know the referees that have been chosen by FIFA to officiate at World Cup 2026. This brings the chance to assess which officials might be the most likely to reach for the cards once the action gets underway.

There are plenty of World Cup booking odds on offer and knowing which referees are the strictest can help you spot value prices. Below we look into the most card-happy refs that could have an impact on popular booking markets across the tournament.

Written by

James Wilkerson

📊 Top 10 Strictest World Cup Referees (Ranked by Yellow Cards)

RankRefereeNationalityYellows / GameReds / GamePens / Game
1Andrés RojasColombia5.520.380.31
2Alejandro HernándezSpain5.410.350.31
3István KovácsRomania5.240.350.32
4Kevin OrtegaPeru5.220.370.47
5Héctor Said MartínezHonduras5.210.660.46
6Yael Falcón PérezArgentina5.180.250.27
7Ivan BartonEl Salvador5.130.470.47
8Gustavo TejeraUruguay5.050.290.33
9Wilton SampaioBrazil5.050.290.28
10Jesús ValenzuelaVenezuela4.960.300.28

ℹ️ Booking stats are taken from Transfermarkt.com at the time the article was written and may have altered slightly since | The stats are based over a referee's career so far to help provide insight into their general booking behaviour.

1# Andrés Rojas - Colombia

Colombia's Andrés Rojas is the referee with the highest yellow card per match average of the officials at the 2026 World Cup in USA, Canada and Mexico.

At the time of writing, he has shown 1958 yellow cards and 135 red cards in 353 fixtures and gives an average of 5.52 yellow cards per game.

2# Alejandro Hernández - Spain

Spanish official Alejandro Hernández is another at the top of the yellow cards per game table and is another whose World Cup matches should be considered for booking betting markets.

At the time of writing, he has shown 2581 yellow cards and 166 red cards in 477 fixtures and gives an average of 5.41 yellow cards per game.

3# István Kovács - Romania

The top three also includes István Kovács from Romania. He has shown 3128 yellow cards and 207 red cards in 597 fixtures and gives an average of 5.24 yellow cards per game.

🟥 Héctor Said Martínez - Honduras

When it comes to red cards, it is Honduras's Héctor Said Martínez that stands out. He dishes out a red card on average every 0.66 matches!

While his yellow card rate isn't as high as some others, his willingness to reach for red pushes him into the most strict band of referees.

🟨 World Cup Referee Yellow Card Averages (Highest → Lowest) - Full Table

RankRefereeNationalityYellows / GameReds / GamePens / Game
1Andrés RojasColombia5.520.380.31
2Alejandro HernándezSpain5.410.350.31
3István KovácsRomania5.240.350.32
4Kevin OrtegaPeru5.220.370.47
5Héctor Said MartínezHonduras5.210.660.46
6Yael Falcón PérezArgentina5.180.250.27
7Ivan BartonEl Salvador5.130.470.47
8Gustavo TejeraUruguay5.050.290.33
9Wilton SampaioBrazil5.050.290.28
10Jesús ValenzuelaVenezuela4.960.300.28
11Dario HerreraArgentina4.960.360.28
12Facundo TelloArgentina4.690.350.26
13Ramón AbattiBrazil4.600.260.25
14João PinheiroPortugal4.510.190.33
15Maurizio MarianiItaly4.410.350.34
16Juan Gabriel BenítezParaguay4.390.330.33
17Oshane NationJamaica4.330.190.22
18Juan CalderónGuatemala4.330.330.34
19Felix ZwayerGermany4.310.200.29
20Sandro SchärerSwitzerland4.250.250.34
21César RamosMexico4.240.390.29
22Ning MaChina4.240.280.34
23Slavko VinčićSlovenia4.170.220.24
24Raphael ClausBrazil4.160.240.27
25Cristian GarayChile4.140.330.27
26Abongile TomSouth Africa4.140.210.32
27Katia GarcíaMexico4.130.120.22
28Ilgiz TantashevUzbekistan4.110.260.34
29Szymon MarciniakPoland4.070.230.42
30Abdulrahman Al JassimQatar4.000.190.45
31Mustapha GhorbalAlgeria3.940.220.38
32Omar Al AliUAE3.840.320.48
33Tori PensoUnited States3.820.110.28
34Alireza FaghaniAustralia3.780.190.26
35François LetexierFrance3.770.280.34
36Pierre AtchoGabon3.740.090.14
37Dahane BeidaMauritania3.730.170.33
38Ismail ElfathUnited States3.680.250.32
39Campbell-Kirk Kawana-WaughNew Zealand3.570.300.45
40Adham MakhadmehJordan3.560.140.25
41Amin MohamedEgypt3.520.210.34
42Anthony TaylorEngland3.510.180.31
43Khalid Al TuraisSaudi Arabia3.440.170.41
44Omar Abdulkadir ArtanSomalia3.370.070.19
45Drew FischerCanada3.280.160.30
46Michael OliverEngland3.270.150.31
47Jalal JayedMorocco3.250.160.50
48Espen EskåsNorway3.230.120.30
49Danny MakkelieNetherlands3.220.240.30
50Clement TurpinFrance3.210.260.35
51Glenn NybergSweden3.070.130.18
52Yusuke ArakiJapan2.690.130.22

ℹ️ Booking stats are taken from Transfermarkt.com at the time the article was written and may have altered slightly since | The stats are based over a referee's career so far to help provide insight into their general booking behaviour.

📌 Quick Observations

  • Very strict referees (5+ cards/game): Andrés Rojas, Alejandro Hernández, IIstván Kovács, Kevin Ortega, Héctor Said Martínez

These are true high-intensity refs — consistently trending toward 5+ yellows per match, meaning frequent game disruption and strict foul punishment.

  • Mid-range core FIFA cluster (3.5–4.5): Most referees fall here — this is the World Cup “default zone”.

  • Low-card referees (<3.3): Yusuke Araki, Danny Makkelie, Espen Eskås, Glenn Nyberg, Clement Turpin.

These referees are significantly more permissive — strong tendency toward under 3.5 cards, unless the match is unusually aggressive.

📈 Over/Under Betting Model (Cards Per Match)

When it comes to booking bets at the 2026 World Cup, there are plenty of markets to explore. Maybe one of the most popular to consider based on the above referee stats is the over/under cards per match markets.

🎯 How the Model Works

Each referee’s average yellow card per game becomes a baseline expectation and we define two key betting bands and the refs that fall into them.

🟥 High card refs (OVER lean)

  • 4.50+ yellows/game

  • Strong tendency to go over most common lines (3.5 / 4.5)

🟩 Low card refs (UNDER lean)

  • < 3.50

  • Strong under bias on standard lines

🟥 OVER-LEAN Results (High Card Referees)

(4.50+ yellows/game — strong Over 3.5 / 4.5 bias)

  • Andrés Rojas (Colombia) — 5.52 Y/G | 0.38 R/G

  • Alejandro Hernández (Mexico) — 5.41 Y/G | 0.35 R/G

  • István Kovács (Romania) — 5.24 Y/G | 0.35 R/G

  • Kevin Ortega (Peru) — 5.22 Y/G | 0.37 R/G

  • Héctor Said Martínez (Honduras) — 5.21 Y/G | 0.66 R/G

  • Yael Falcón Pérez (Argentina) — 5.18 Y/G | 0.25 R/G

  • Ivan Barton (El Salvador) — 5.13 Y/G | 0.47 R/G

  • Gustavo Tejera (Uruguay) — 5.05 Y/G | 0.29 R/G

  • Wilton Sampaio (Brazil) — 5.05 Y/G | 0.29 R/G

  • Jesús Valenzuela (Venezuela) — 4.96 Y/G | 0.30 R/G

  • Dario Herrera (Argentina) — 4.96 Y/G | 0.36 R/G

  • Facundo Tello (Argentina) — 4.69 Y/G | 0.35 R/G

  • Ramón Abatti (Brazil) — 4.60 Y/G | 0.26 R/G

  • João Pinheiro (Portugal) — 4.51 Y/G | 0.19 R/G

Total: 14 refs

📌Key Takeaway:
This is a very strong cluster. Nearly all sit comfortably above 4.5, meaning:

  • Over 3.5 = high hit rate baseline

  • Over 4.5 = still very viable

  • Some extreme refs (Martínez, Barton, Ortega) push toward Over 5.5 territory

🟩 UNDER-LEAN Results (Low Card Referees)

(< 3.50 yellows/game — strong Under bias)

  • Drew Fischer (Canada) — 3.28 Y/G | 0.16 R/G

  • Michael Oliver (England) — 3.27 Y/G | 0.15 R/G

  • Jalal Jayed (Morocco) — 3.25 Y/G | 0.16 R/G

  • Espen Eskås (Norway) — 3.23 Y/G | 0.12 R/G

  • Danny Makkelie (Netherlands) — 3.22 Y/G | 0.24 R/G

  • Clement Turpin (France) — 3.21 Y/G | 0.26 R/G

  • Glenn Nyberg (Sweden) — 3.07 Y/G | 0.13 R/G

  • Yusuke Araki (Japan) — 2.69 Y/G | 0.13 R/G

Total: 8 refs

📌Key Takeaway:
This group is smaller but very reliable statistically:

  • Under 4.5 = strong baseline angle

  • Under 3.5 = viable depending on matchup

  • Araki (2.69) = elite under profile

🟥Consider How Red Cards Can Alter Ref Stats

While focusing on yellow cards per game is a good indicator for general match booking bets, especially when betting over/under markets, it is sometimes also worth considering how red cards could change things.

Red card betting is also possible with the best football betting sites so could be considered when certain officials are in charge.

⚠️ Key Insights

Reds materially change tiers

  • Several refs jump up a full tier due to red card frequency

  • Héctor Said Martínez → massive 0.66 reds/game → becomes one of the strictest overall

The pool becomes EVEN MORE over-leaning

  • Elite + Strict tiers dominate when reds are factored in

  • True ‘under refs’ become extremely rare

👉 This explains why:

  • Over 3.5 is often priced aggressively

  • Value often shifts to Over 4.5 / 5.5 with elite refs

Hidden edge refs

These refs don’t look extreme on yellows alone but become strong overs with their reds also factored:

  • Ivan Barton

  • Kevin Ortega

  • Szymon Marciniak

  • Abdulrahman Al Jassim

Best Bookies for World Cup 2026 Booking Bets

The best betting sites will have a wide range of markets for the World Cup, both for pre-match and live betting, including good booking markets. Any bookie we recommend also has good apps, live streaming, and bonuses.

  1. Logo image for bet365
    bet365
    4.9/5
    • Betting Offers
    • Betting on major football leagues
    • Great banking options
    Visit

    18+ Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration Required. Gambleaware.org

  2. Logo image for betfred png (1) logo
    Betfred
    4.7/5
    • Classic slots
    • Download casino
    • Easy registration
    Visit
  3. Logo image for midnite
    Midnite
    4.5/5
    • Great odds
    • Boosted bets
    • Easy registration
    Visit

Betting online since 2007, James Wilkerson has a keen eye for detail when it comes sportsbooks. Primarily a football bettor, he is a huge fan of watching the matches live, and is here to give you insight from his experience.

Gambling can be addictive, please play responsibly.
If you are a problem gambler, please visit this website in order to get help.

Phone Icon

18+. Supports Responsible Gambling Gamcare and GambleAware.

© 2026 Rebel Penguin APS

  • 18+
DMCA.com Protection Status

We use cookies in order to optimise our site and improve your experience with us. By using the site you consent to ourCookie Policy.