Written by
James Wilkerson📊 Top 10 Strictest World Cup Referees (Ranked by Yellow Cards)
| Rank | Referee | Nationality | Yellows / Game | Reds / Game | Pens / Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrés Rojas | Colombia | 5.52 | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| 2 | Alejandro Hernández | Spain | 5.41 | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| 3 | István Kovács | Romania | 5.24 | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| 4 | Kevin Ortega | Peru | 5.22 | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| 5 | Héctor Said Martínez | Honduras | 5.21 | 0.66 | 0.46 |
| 6 | Yael Falcón Pérez | Argentina | 5.18 | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| 7 | Ivan Barton | El Salvador | 5.13 | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| 8 | Gustavo Tejera | Uruguay | 5.05 | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| 9 | Wilton Sampaio | Brazil | 5.05 | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| 10 | Jesús Valenzuela | Venezuela | 4.96 | 0.30 | 0.28 |
ℹ️ Booking stats are taken from Transfermarkt.com at the time the article was written and may have altered slightly since | The stats are based over a referee's career so far to help provide insight into their general booking behaviour.
1# Andrés Rojas - Colombia
Colombia's Andrés Rojas is the referee with the highest yellow card per match average of the officials at the 2026 World Cup in USA, Canada and Mexico.
At the time of writing, he has shown 1958 yellow cards and 135 red cards in 353 fixtures and gives an average of 5.52 yellow cards per game.
2# Alejandro Hernández - Spain
Spanish official Alejandro Hernández is another at the top of the yellow cards per game table and is another whose World Cup matches should be considered for booking betting markets.
At the time of writing, he has shown 2581 yellow cards and 166 red cards in 477 fixtures and gives an average of 5.41 yellow cards per game.
3# István Kovács - Romania
The top three also includes István Kovács from Romania. He has shown 3128 yellow cards and 207 red cards in 597 fixtures and gives an average of 5.24 yellow cards per game.
🟥 Héctor Said Martínez - Honduras
When it comes to red cards, it is Honduras's Héctor Said Martínez that stands out. He dishes out a red card on average every 0.66 matches!
While his yellow card rate isn't as high as some others, his willingness to reach for red pushes him into the most strict band of referees.
🟨 World Cup Referee Yellow Card Averages (Highest → Lowest) - Full Table
| Rank | Referee | Nationality | Yellows / Game | Reds / Game | Pens / Game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrés Rojas | Colombia | 5.52 | 0.38 | 0.31 |
| 2 | Alejandro Hernández | Spain | 5.41 | 0.35 | 0.31 |
| 3 | István Kovács | Romania | 5.24 | 0.35 | 0.32 |
| 4 | Kevin Ortega | Peru | 5.22 | 0.37 | 0.47 |
| 5 | Héctor Said Martínez | Honduras | 5.21 | 0.66 | 0.46 |
| 6 | Yael Falcón Pérez | Argentina | 5.18 | 0.25 | 0.27 |
| 7 | Ivan Barton | El Salvador | 5.13 | 0.47 | 0.47 |
| 8 | Gustavo Tejera | Uruguay | 5.05 | 0.29 | 0.33 |
| 9 | Wilton Sampaio | Brazil | 5.05 | 0.29 | 0.28 |
| 10 | Jesús Valenzuela | Venezuela | 4.96 | 0.30 | 0.28 |
| 11 | Dario Herrera | Argentina | 4.96 | 0.36 | 0.28 |
| 12 | Facundo Tello | Argentina | 4.69 | 0.35 | 0.26 |
| 13 | Ramón Abatti | Brazil | 4.60 | 0.26 | 0.25 |
| 14 | João Pinheiro | Portugal | 4.51 | 0.19 | 0.33 |
| 15 | Maurizio Mariani | Italy | 4.41 | 0.35 | 0.34 |
| 16 | Juan Gabriel Benítez | Paraguay | 4.39 | 0.33 | 0.33 |
| 17 | Oshane Nation | Jamaica | 4.33 | 0.19 | 0.22 |
| 18 | Juan Calderón | Guatemala | 4.33 | 0.33 | 0.34 |
| 19 | Felix Zwayer | Germany | 4.31 | 0.20 | 0.29 |
| 20 | Sandro Schärer | Switzerland | 4.25 | 0.25 | 0.34 |
| 21 | César Ramos | Mexico | 4.24 | 0.39 | 0.29 |
| 22 | Ning Ma | China | 4.24 | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| 23 | Slavko Vinčić | Slovenia | 4.17 | 0.22 | 0.24 |
| 24 | Raphael Claus | Brazil | 4.16 | 0.24 | 0.27 |
| 25 | Cristian Garay | Chile | 4.14 | 0.33 | 0.27 |
| 26 | Abongile Tom | South Africa | 4.14 | 0.21 | 0.32 |
| 27 | Katia García | Mexico | 4.13 | 0.12 | 0.22 |
| 28 | Ilgiz Tantashev | Uzbekistan | 4.11 | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| 29 | Szymon Marciniak | Poland | 4.07 | 0.23 | 0.42 |
| 30 | Abdulrahman Al Jassim | Qatar | 4.00 | 0.19 | 0.45 |
| 31 | Mustapha Ghorbal | Algeria | 3.94 | 0.22 | 0.38 |
| 32 | Omar Al Ali | UAE | 3.84 | 0.32 | 0.48 |
| 33 | Tori Penso | United States | 3.82 | 0.11 | 0.28 |
| 34 | Alireza Faghani | Australia | 3.78 | 0.19 | 0.26 |
| 35 | François Letexier | France | 3.77 | 0.28 | 0.34 |
| 36 | Pierre Atcho | Gabon | 3.74 | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| 37 | Dahane Beida | Mauritania | 3.73 | 0.17 | 0.33 |
| 38 | Ismail Elfath | United States | 3.68 | 0.25 | 0.32 |
| 39 | Campbell-Kirk Kawana-Waugh | New Zealand | 3.57 | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| 40 | Adham Makhadmeh | Jordan | 3.56 | 0.14 | 0.25 |
| 41 | Amin Mohamed | Egypt | 3.52 | 0.21 | 0.34 |
| 42 | Anthony Taylor | England | 3.51 | 0.18 | 0.31 |
| 43 | Khalid Al Turais | Saudi Arabia | 3.44 | 0.17 | 0.41 |
| 44 | Omar Abdulkadir Artan | Somalia | 3.37 | 0.07 | 0.19 |
| 45 | Drew Fischer | Canada | 3.28 | 0.16 | 0.30 |
| 46 | Michael Oliver | England | 3.27 | 0.15 | 0.31 |
| 47 | Jalal Jayed | Morocco | 3.25 | 0.16 | 0.50 |
| 48 | Espen Eskås | Norway | 3.23 | 0.12 | 0.30 |
| 49 | Danny Makkelie | Netherlands | 3.22 | 0.24 | 0.30 |
| 50 | Clement Turpin | France | 3.21 | 0.26 | 0.35 |
| 51 | Glenn Nyberg | Sweden | 3.07 | 0.13 | 0.18 |
| 52 | Yusuke Araki | Japan | 2.69 | 0.13 | 0.22 |
ℹ️ Booking stats are taken from Transfermarkt.com at the time the article was written and may have altered slightly since | The stats are based over a referee's career so far to help provide insight into their general booking behaviour.
📌 Quick Observations
Very strict referees (5+ cards/game): Andrés Rojas, Alejandro Hernández, IIstván Kovács, Kevin Ortega, Héctor Said Martínez
These are true high-intensity refs — consistently trending toward 5+ yellows per match, meaning frequent game disruption and strict foul punishment.
Mid-range core FIFA cluster (3.5–4.5): Most referees fall here — this is the World Cup “default zone”.
Low-card referees (<3.3): Yusuke Araki, Danny Makkelie, Espen Eskås, Glenn Nyberg, Clement Turpin.
These referees are significantly more permissive — strong tendency toward under 3.5 cards, unless the match is unusually aggressive.
📈 Over/Under Betting Model (Cards Per Match)
When it comes to booking bets at the 2026 World Cup, there are plenty of markets to explore. Maybe one of the most popular to consider based on the above referee stats is the over/under cards per match markets.
🎯 How the Model Works
Each referee’s average yellow card per game becomes a baseline expectation and we define two key betting bands and the refs that fall into them.
🟥 High card refs (OVER lean)
4.50+ yellows/game
Strong tendency to go over most common lines (3.5 / 4.5)
🟩 Low card refs (UNDER lean)
< 3.50
Strong under bias on standard lines
🟥 OVER-LEAN Results (High Card Referees)
(4.50+ yellows/game — strong Over 3.5 / 4.5 bias)
Andrés Rojas (Colombia) — 5.52 Y/G | 0.38 R/G
Alejandro Hernández (Mexico) — 5.41 Y/G | 0.35 R/G
István Kovács (Romania) — 5.24 Y/G | 0.35 R/G
Kevin Ortega (Peru) — 5.22 Y/G | 0.37 R/G
Héctor Said Martínez (Honduras) — 5.21 Y/G | 0.66 R/G
Yael Falcón Pérez (Argentina) — 5.18 Y/G | 0.25 R/G
Ivan Barton (El Salvador) — 5.13 Y/G | 0.47 R/G
Gustavo Tejera (Uruguay) — 5.05 Y/G | 0.29 R/G
Wilton Sampaio (Brazil) — 5.05 Y/G | 0.29 R/G
Jesús Valenzuela (Venezuela) — 4.96 Y/G | 0.30 R/G
Dario Herrera (Argentina) — 4.96 Y/G | 0.36 R/G
Facundo Tello (Argentina) — 4.69 Y/G | 0.35 R/G
Ramón Abatti (Brazil) — 4.60 Y/G | 0.26 R/G
João Pinheiro (Portugal) — 4.51 Y/G | 0.19 R/G
Total: 14 refs
📌Key Takeaway:
This is a very strong cluster. Nearly all sit comfortably above 4.5, meaning:
Over 3.5 = high hit rate baseline
Over 4.5 = still very viable
Some extreme refs (Martínez, Barton, Ortega) push toward Over 5.5 territory
🟩 UNDER-LEAN Results (Low Card Referees)
(< 3.50 yellows/game — strong Under bias)
Drew Fischer (Canada) — 3.28 Y/G | 0.16 R/G
Michael Oliver (England) — 3.27 Y/G | 0.15 R/G
Jalal Jayed (Morocco) — 3.25 Y/G | 0.16 R/G
Espen Eskås (Norway) — 3.23 Y/G | 0.12 R/G
Danny Makkelie (Netherlands) — 3.22 Y/G | 0.24 R/G
Clement Turpin (France) — 3.21 Y/G | 0.26 R/G
Glenn Nyberg (Sweden) — 3.07 Y/G | 0.13 R/G
Yusuke Araki (Japan) — 2.69 Y/G | 0.13 R/G
Total: 8 refs
📌Key Takeaway:
This group is smaller but very reliable statistically:
Under 4.5 = strong baseline angle
Under 3.5 = viable depending on matchup
Araki (2.69) = elite under profile
🟥Consider How Red Cards Can Alter Ref Stats
While focusing on yellow cards per game is a good indicator for general match booking bets, especially when betting over/under markets, it is sometimes also worth considering how red cards could change things.
Red card betting is also possible with the best football betting sites so could be considered when certain officials are in charge.
⚠️ Key Insights
Reds materially change tiers
Several refs jump up a full tier due to red card frequency
Héctor Said Martínez → massive 0.66 reds/game → becomes one of the strictest overall
The pool becomes EVEN MORE over-leaning
Elite + Strict tiers dominate when reds are factored in
True ‘under refs’ become extremely rare
👉 This explains why:
Over 3.5 is often priced aggressively
Value often shifts to Over 4.5 / 5.5 with elite refs
Hidden edge refs
These refs don’t look extreme on yellows alone but become strong overs with their reds also factored:
Ivan Barton
Kevin Ortega
Szymon Marciniak
Abdulrahman Al Jassim
Best Bookies for World Cup 2026 Booking Bets
The best betting sites will have a wide range of markets for the World Cup, both for pre-match and live betting, including good booking markets. Any bookie we recommend also has good apps, live streaming, and bonuses.
- bet3654.9/5Verified in June
- Betting Offers
- Betting on major football leagues
- Great banking options
18+ Min deposit requirement. Free Bets are paid as Bet Credits and are available for use upon settlement of qualifying bets. Min odds, bet and payment method exclusions apply. Returns exclude Bet Credits stake. Time limits and T&Cs apply. Registration Required. Gambleaware.org
Sportsbook Expert
Betting online since 2007, James Wilkerson has a keen eye for detail when it comes sportsbooks. Primarily a football bettor, he is a huge fan of watching the matches live, and is here to give you insight from his experience.
/fit-in/356x343/1762425574/livegoals-betting.jpg)
/fit-in/80x80/1762339991/betfred-png-%281%29-logo.png)
/fit-in/80x80/1742992107/midnite-logo.png)